Russia miscalculated on its war’s speed; West may be doing so with transition?
Until the Russia–Ukraine War, governments were largely concerned with balancing two incompatible goals: keeping energy cheap while supporting the production of low-carbon alternatives that policymakers had hoped would one day be able to compete with oil and gas on their own. Left unsaid was the challenge of how this goal will be achieved, especially on a timeline of less than 30 years. That was a problem for the next decade’s leaders. The collapse of Europe’s energy relationship with Russia has demolished the hope of keeping energy cheap. So does this mean expensive renewables will get even less support moving forward? Or will higher energy costs instead become easier for politicians to swallow?
As part of our recently launched Trading the Transition service, we publish regular Insights exploring important energy transition topics and their implications on broader markets in detail.
Recently, we released a pragmatic review analysing how Western sanctions on Russian energy supplies will affect global efforts toward decarbonisation.
The economic and political impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shifted the balance of power in the energy “trilemma” that faces policy experts and decision makers, as previously assumed Russian energy supplies have evaporated. This has triggered a rapid evolution in the relationship between environmental sustainability, energy costs and energy security, which form the three pillars of transition policy and investment debates.
This Insight and our other Trading the Transition publications regularly offer our views on the interplay between these dynamics against a world that won’t stand still, exploring questions such as:
- Hydrogen fuel will not solve every energy problem (despite the market’s hopes), but what are its alternatives?
- How will Europe address the new scarcity of Russian supplies (and resulting inflationary pressures) without knocking its transition goals off course?
- What commodities will be key to building out affordable renewable power in the coming months, and how will they interact with existing market dynamics?
We delve into all these questions and more. Fill out the form on the right to access the report.
Energy Aspects’ Trading the Transition service is aimed at helping participants in today’s energy market understand the balance between expanding green energy demand and the realities of the current energy landscape.
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Lead analyst
Robert Campbell
Head of Trading the Transition, Energy Aspects
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